Walking up to the sportsbook window or opening your betting app, you’re faced with a dizzying array of numbers, plus and minus signs, and moneylines staring back at you. If you’re like I was when I first started, it can feel a little overwhelming. But here’s the thing: understanding how to calculate your potential NBA moneyline payout isn’t just about the math—it’s about building a foundation for smarter, more profitable betting. I’ve come to see it much like solving a series of small puzzles, not entirely unlike the quirky challenges in a game I recently spent some time with, Squirrel With a Gun. In that game, you’re presented with a compact sandbox. Each empty suburban house is essentially a miniature level filled with golden acorns to collect. Some require a straightforward platforming jump, while others demand a moment of what the game loosely calls "logical" thinking. There’s usually just one intended solution—no room for creativity, but a satisfying "aha!" moment when you connect the dots. Calculating a moneyline payout is a similar kind of puzzle. It has a definitive, mathematical solution, and finding it is the first step to maximizing your winnings. It’s that initial acorn you have to collect before you can even think about the bigger challenges.
So, let's crack the first nut: the basic calculation. An NBA moneyline bet is simply a wager on which team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. The odds are presented as either a positive or negative number. The negative number, like -150, represents the favorite—the team expected to win. The positive number, like +130, represents the underdog. The calculation for each is different. For a favorite, the formula tells you how much you need to risk to win $100. If the Los Angeles Lakers are listed at -150, you would need to bet $150 to win a profit of $100. Your total return, should they win, would be your $150 stake plus your $100 profit, totaling $250. I always do this math before I place the bet, never after. It clarifies the risk-to-reward ratio instantly. For an underdog, the number shows how much profit you would make on a $100 bet. If the Charlotte Hornets are at +130, a $100 bet would yield a $130 profit, with a total return of $230. Now, you’re not required to bet in $100 increments, of course. I rarely do. The key is to understand the multiplier. For a -150 line, the implied probability is 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%. For a +130 line, it's 100 / (130 + 100) ≈ 43.48%. This is where the real puzzle begins, because the sportsbook's odds always include their built-in profit margin, called the "vig" or "juice," which means the total implied probability of both sides will always add up to more than 100%.
This is the point where many casual bettors stop. They understand the basic payout and place their bet. But to truly maximize winnings, you have to move from that simple platforming challenge to the more logical, kettlebells-in-the-pool type of thinking. It’s about looking beyond the obvious number. The real skill isn't just calculating what you could win; it's in assessing whether the potential payout justifies the risk based on your own analysis. This is where personal preference and a bit of an edge come into play. I am far more drawn to underdog betting in the NBA regular season. The nature of the 82-game grind, with back-to-backs, travel fatigue, and occasional superstar rest, creates incredible volatility. A top-tier team like the Milwaukee Bucks might have a 78% chance of beating a lower-seeded team on paper, but the moneyline might be -380, requiring a $380 bet just to win $100. To me, that’s often a terrible value. I’d rather look for those +220 or +350 underdogs where I believe the public is overvaluing the favorite due to a single star player or recent headlines. It’s like that moment in Squirrel With a Gun where you see a seemingly empty pool. The obvious solution isn't there; you have to find the kettlebells to weigh yourself down and get to the treasure at the bottom. The obvious bet is on the favorite, but the hidden value is often on the team everyone is counting out.
Another layer to this is shopping for lines. I cannot stress this enough. The difference of just a few points on a moneyline can dramatically impact your long-term profitability. Let’s say you like the Knicks to win a game. One book might have them at -120, while another has them at -110. On a $100 bet, that’s a $10 difference in your potential profit. It seems small, but over hundreds of bets a year, that adds up to thousands of dollars left on the table. I use at least three different sportsbooks religiously, and I would estimate this practice alone has increased my annual net winnings by around 15-18%. It’s a non-negotiable habit. Similarly, understanding when to bet a moneyline versus a point spread is crucial. If I believe a favorite is going to win a close game, say by 1-4 points, their moneyline might be -250, but the point spread at -5.5 might be -110. In that scenario, if I’m not confident they can cover the spread, the moneyline, while more expensive, is the smarter, more logical play to secure the win. It’s about choosing the right tool for the specific puzzle in front of you.
Bankroll management is the final, and perhaps most personal, piece of this puzzle. It’s the boring, unsexy part that nobody wants to talk about, but it’s what separates the long-term winners from the people who flame out after a hot streak. I operate on a strict unit system, where one unit represents 1% of my total bankroll. For a standard play, I’ll risk one unit. For a bet I have extreme confidence in, I might go up to two or three units, but I have a hard cap that I’ve never broken. This prevents you from ever going bust on a single bad day or a string of bad luck. If your bankroll is $2,000, a one-unit bet is $20. On a -150 favorite, that’s a potential profit of roughly $13.33. On a +200 underdog, it’s a potential profit of $40. By standardizing your risk, you take the emotion out of the equation. You’re not chasing losses with a huge, desperate bet; you’re simply executing a long-term strategy. It’s the discipline that allows you to stay in the game long enough for your analytical edge to pay off. In the end, calculating your payout is the simple part. The real art, the part that truly feels like solving a satisfying puzzle, lies in weaving together line shopping, value assessment, and iron-clad discipline. It’s about collecting those golden acorns of insight one by one until you’ve built a substantial hoard of winnings.